Recovery in June Masks Broader Decline
Russia’s crude oil production rose by 120,000 barrels per day in June to reach 8.86 million bpd, a partial recovery from May’s low of around 8.7 million bpd. But the month-on-month uptick has not altered the IEA’s view that the trajectory remains firmly downward. Russia’s total crude oil exports in June stood at 5.8 million bpd, up 620,000 bpd from May. globalbankingandfinance.com biz.liga.net
The June rebound came after production had fallen for six consecutive months, according to The Moscow Times, as escalating Ukrainian drone campaigns hit processing facilities and upstream infrastructure across an increasingly wide geography. themoscowtimes.com
Long-Range Drones Expand the Target Map
The IEA noted that Ukraine has begun targeting more remote oil-producing regions with longer-range drones, broadening the scope of disruption beyond previously vulnerable refinery complexes. In its June report, the agency had already cut its annual Russian forecast by 200,000 bpd to 8.95 million bpd, citing “continued strikes on oil infrastructure”. The July revision marks a further downgrade. reuters.com mezha.net economictimes.com globalbankingandfinance.com
Russia acknowledged for the first time in June that its oil output had declined this year, attributing the reduction to unscheduled maintenance. The IEA had previously forecast that drone strikes would suppress Russian refinery processing rates through at least mid-2026. mezha.net energynow.com
The broader oil market context remains one of oversupply. The IEA’s July report projects global oil demand will fall by 1 million barrels per day this year compared with 2025, the first annual contraction since 2020. tradingpedia.com
