A Familiar Playbook
In a post on X on July 5, the TF International Securities analyst shared results of his latest supply chain survey showing that assembly shipments of the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026 will total roughly 7 to 8 million units, with only 500,000 to 1 million units available in the third quarter — about 10 percent of the half-year total. That inventory, Kuo wrote, is far too thin to support a simultaneous launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, which are expected to ship around 22 to 23 million units in the same period. x.com x.com gizchina.com news.futunn.com
Kuo drew a direct parallel to the iPhone X in 2017, when Apple announced the device on September 12 but did not open pre-orders until October 27 due to production bottlenecks. He expects the iPhone Ultra to follow the same script: unveiled at what is anticipated to be CEO John Ternus’s first keynote, likely on September 8 or 9, but not available to order until the fourth quarter. gizchina.com news.futunn.com
Tight Supply Through Year-End
Even at an expected price of $2,300 to $2,500, Kuo said demand will remain “robust” through at least year-end based on conversations with carriers, retail channels, and resellers. He predicted pre-orders would sell out immediately, with delivery times stretching to four to six weeks or longer and remaining at that level through December. news.futunn.com gizchina.com
The scarcity could also fuel a secondary market, with resale markups of 50 to 100 percent above the official retail price “not entirely out of the question,” according to the analyst. gizchina.com news.futunn.com
Production Challenges Linger
The constrained supply follows months of reports about engineering difficulties with the device’s hinge mechanism. Forbes reported in June that Apple encountered noise issues with the 3D-printed hinge post-assembly, potentially delaying the production timeline by 15 days to a month. However, separate reports from Mashable and 9to5Mac in late June indicated mass production was set to commence in late July, with suppliers confirming a September announcement remains on track. 9to5mac.com mashable.com forbes.com
Kuo noted that, unlike the iPhone X — whose supply constraints eased by late November 2017 with total second-half shipments reaching 30 million units — the foldable iPhone’s higher price and greater manufacturing complexity mean constraints could persist longer. The true picture of sustainable demand, he said, will not emerge until the first quarter of 2027. x.com news.futunn.com
