Hedge funds add bullish oil bets at fastest pace in a decade

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Money managers piled into bullish bets on Brent crude at the fastest pace in almost ten years as the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire sent shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to near-zero, according to weekly positioning data from ICE Futures Europe. Hedge funds increased long-only positions on Brent by 75,996 lots to 357,154 in the week ending July 14, the largest single-week increase since December 2016. Ffacebook Bbloomberg

The surge in bullish positioning comes as fighting between the United States and Iran intensified to levels not seen since March, when Brent crude briefly topped $120 per barrel. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping on July 12, and just three commodity vessels crossed the waterway on Thursday — the fewest daily transits since May — according to shipping data cited by Reuters. Iintellectia Rreuters Iinstagram

Hedge funds add bullish oil bets at fastest pace in a decade

Strait of Hormuz at Near-Standstill

The re-escalation followed the collapse of an interim ceasefire on July 8. The U.S. military has launched six consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian military targets along the southern coast, hitting more than 300 installations aimed at degrading Tehran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping. Iran warned Thursday that it would “crush” key targets across the region if Washington followed through on threats to strike Iranian infrastructure. Ccnn Rreuters Ccnbc Wwikipedia

No Very Large Crude Carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers passed through the strait for a second consecutive day on Thursday, Reuters reported. The International Maritime Organization’s secretary-general urged all vessels to avoid transit “until the necessary safety conditions are in place”. Rreuters UUn

A Familiar Trade Returns

The latest positioning buildup echoes earlier waves of hedge fund buying this year. In March, net-long positions reached 351,032 lots — then the highest since February 2020 — as the war’s outbreak sent crude soaring. Quantitative trend-following funds have posted double-digit gains in 2026, with the SG CTA Index rising more than 12% through early June on the back of energy trades. Ccnbc Bbloomberg

The renewed escalation has dampened expectations of a sustained recovery in Hormuz shipping that had begun during a brief June truce. CNBC reported in June that some of the year’s biggest hedge fund winners have been systematic strategies riding persistent trends in oil and other commodities. With traffic through the world’s most important oil chokepoint again at a standstill, traders appear to be betting those trends have further to run. Ccnbc