MediaTek Inc.

Google has selected MediaTek as its exclusive development partner for the next-generation TPU v9 (codenamed Triggerfish), cementing its position as a credible challenger in the custom AI chip market. GF Securities projects MediaTek will account for approximately 26% of AI ASIC server compute shipments by 2028, making it the second-largest player in the segment.

Morgan Stanley argues that MediaTek's involvement in Google's TPU supply chain is real but not disruptive, with Broadcom retaining approximately 80% long-term market share. MediaTek also faces significant packaging execution risks, as its EMIB technology has not been validated at the scale Google requires, introducing uncertainty about successful implementation.

With 21 out of 23 analysts rating MediaTek a Buy and an average 12-month price target of NT$4,841.78 — implying over 30% upside from current levels — Wall Street sentiment is overwhelmingly positive. Macquarie maintains the most aggressive target of NT$10,000, while Citi and Nomura also hold strong Buy ratings with significant upside projections.

Daiwa Securities downgraded MediaTek to Hold, and the stock has already surged over 166% in the past year, trading in a 52-week range of NT$1,130 to NT$4,970. This extreme appreciation raises questions about whether current valuations already price in much of the AI-driven growth narrative, limiting further near-term gains.

MediaTek's Zebrafish TPU is expected to enter mass production by end-2026, with Humufish scaling up in 2028, demonstrating a credible product roadmap. Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates lifetime shipments of Humufish at 4–5 million units, with Triggerfish adding another 1–2 million units, underscoring strong demand visibility and manufacturing ramp confidence.

Morgan Stanley highlights that MediaTek will still depend on TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity for 2nm TPU production, while its EMIB packaging technology remains unvalidated at Google's required scale. Broadcom's already-locked HBM memory supply allocations under existing contracts could further constrain MediaTek's ability to deliver meaningful cost advantages to customers.