Shanxi Coking Co., Ltd.

Safety inspections following the Shanxi mining disaster and reduced imports have tightened coke supply, driving prices higher and dramatically cutting Shanxi Coking's net loss by up to 83.27% in H1 2026. Low inventory levels and coal price support are expected to keep prices elevated in the near term.

The ninth-round coke price increase is likely to mark the end of the current upward cycle. As demand seasonally weakens and cost support fades, the price center of coke is forecast to loosen, with both spot and futures prices expected to enter a high-level decline range in the medium term.

The major gas explosion at a Shanxi coking coal mine in late May 2026 caused widespread production suspensions, tightening coking coal supply and underpinning coke prices. This supply shock is expected to persist at least through August 2026, providing continued upstream price support for coke producers.

Higher coking coal input costs resulting from the Shanxi mining disaster compress steelmaker margins and weaken steel demand, which in turn reduces coke demand. Simultaneously, softer demand from Indian steelmakers — facing elevated inventories and monsoon disruptions — limits Shanxi Coking's export market opportunities.

Coking coal prices rose 2.6% month-on-month in June 2026, outperforming most commodities. Premium low-vol coking coal is forecast to peak at US$241/t in Q3 2026, reflecting resilient demand fundamentals and supply tightness that support Shanxi Coking's revenue environment through the remainder of the year.

China's steel sector PMI has remained in contractionary territory since April 2026, with iron ore inventories at historically elevated levels and steelmaker margins already compressed. A long-term restart of significant upward momentum in coke prices is difficult without a meaningful recovery in steel demand.