Hoshine Silicon Industry Co., Ltd.

Hoshine has forecast a return to profit in H1 2026 despite a sharp revenue dip in 2025, signaling operational resilience. Analysts maintaining a BUY consensus with an average target price of 52.54 CNY — representing a 52.69% upside — suggest the worst of the earnings pressure may be behind the company.

Lower revenue in silicon businesses was identified as the major factor behind a sharp dip in 2025 revenue, and the stock has already fallen 34.71% year-to-date. With polysilicon prices continuing to decline — averaging just US$4.92/kg amid a weakening yuan — a durable earnings recovery remains structurally challenged.

Silicon metal output is set to rise only moderately by 6.5% to 90,000 tons as four manufacturers expand production, suggesting the supply increase is measured rather than disorderly. A controlled capacity ramp could support price stabilization and protect Hoshine's margins as one of the sector's dominant producers.

The 2026 polysilicon market is characterized by structural oversupply and weak demand, with prices crashing below production costs and threatening the financial viability of multiple producers. Continued capacity additions across the industry risk deepening the glut, keeping realized prices suppressed well into the forecast period.

The global silicones market is projected to grow from $22.9 billion in 2026 to $34.7 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.3%, and Hoshine's addressable silicon industry market is forecast to expand from $8.51 billion to $13.55 billion. These secular tailwinds provide a compelling long-term growth runway for a vertically integrated leader.

Despite promising long-term market forecasts, Hoshine's stock has declined 34.71% since January 2026 and trades at a significant discount to analyst targets, reflecting deep investor skepticism. Near-term fundamentals — falling silicon prices, revenue contraction, and margin compression — make it difficult to justify valuation based on multi-year growth projections alone.