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Alcoa Corporation

AA · NYSE

Market closed$43.98$-2.87 (-6.13%)After hours $44.02 · +0.09%

Key statistics

Previous close$46.85
Open$46.46
Day high$46.75
Day low$43.76
52-week high$84.38
52-week low$28.11
Market cap11.61B
Volume11.66M
Average volume5.32M
P/E ratio14.51
Forward P/E—
EPS3.03
Dividend yield+0.91%

Market context

Why it moved

Alcoa's stock fell sharply after the company missed Q2 earnings estimates and lowered its full-year alumina production guidance due to operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery, with the earnings shortfall further compounded by a late-quarter decline in aluminum prices and higher Section 232 tariffs on Canadian imports.

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What is happening

Recent company-specific developments and publisher coverage.

July 18, 2026Alcoa tumbled sharply after its Q2 2026 earnings miss and a meaningful cut to its full-year alumina outlook overshadowed record quarterly revenue. The company reported adjusted EPS of $2.12 and EBITDA of $901M, both falling short of Wall Street estimates, while cutting its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5M–9.6M metric tons due to operational disruptions at the Pinjarra refinery in Australia caused by Cyclone Narelle. Adding to investor concern is the $4.1B South32 acquisition announced June 30, which carries dilution, leverage, and integration risks — a deal that has weighed on the stock since its announcement. Post-earnings, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BMO all trimmed their price targets, reinforcing a cautious Street consensus.

-6.1259

July 17, 2026Alcoa fell sharply after reporting Q2 2026 earnings that missed expectations, with adjusted EPS of $2.12 missing the $2.25 consensus and revenue of $3.97B slightly below estimates. The miss triggered further selling in after-hours, with shares down an additional ~3% to ~$45.54. Compounding investor concern is the company's $4.1B acquisition of South32's upstream aluminum assets, which has divided Wall Street — Morgan Stanley downgraded AA to Hold and cut its target to $53, citing expectations of an aluminum market surplus by 2027-2028, while Freedom Broker slashed its target from $93 to $58 on acquisition valuation concerns.

-3.52

July 16, 2026Alcoa closed modestly lower ahead of its closely watched Q2 earnings report due after the bell on July 16, with analysts expecting a sharp year-over-year earnings rebound to ~$2.24–$2.41 per share. Investor focus is squarely on whether the company can beat estimates after missing Q1 consensus, while a notable strategic catalyst emerged as Alcoa and the governments of Australia, Japan, and the U.S. reached a final investment decision for a gallium production plant in Western Australia, bolstering the company's critical-minerals credentials. Analyst sentiment remains divided — JPMorgan reiterated a Hold with a $55 target, Freedom Broker slashed its target to $58 from $93, and Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equalweight at $53, while Wells Fargo holds an Overweight with a $72 target and the consensus average sits at ~$64.91, well above current levels.

-0.958

July 15, 2026Alcoa edged higher ahead of its Q2 earnings report due Thursday, July 16, with analysts forecasting EPS of $2.24 — nearly six times year-ago levels — on revenue of $4.12 billion. The session was also marked by a major strategic announcement: Alcoa, alongside the governments of Australia, Japan, and the U.S., reached a final investment decision to build a gallium production plant at its Wagerup refinery in Western Australia, strengthening its role in critical mineral supply chains for semiconductor and defense sectors. Analyst sentiment remains divided ahead of earnings, with Wells Fargo raising its target to $72 (Overweight) while Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America cut targets, reflecting caution over the $4.1B South32 acquisition and prior Q1 miss.

0.6979

July 14, 2026Alcoa closed essentially flat as investors brace for its Q2 earnings report due July 16, with analysts forecasting EPS of $2.24 — a dramatic improvement from $0.39 a year ago — alongside the company's pending $4.1B acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. Analyst sentiment remains divided, with Morgan Stanley downgrading to Equal-Weight and cutting its target to $53, B of A maintaining Underperform with a $51 target, while Wells Fargo raised its target to $72 with an Overweight rating. Basic materials was the worst-performing sector last week, down 2.46%, adding pressure ahead of a macro-heavy week featuring U.S.-Iran tensions, surging oil prices, and key inflation data.

0.0822

July 11, 2026Alcoa closed essentially flat amid a wave of analyst downgrades that have reset expectations around the aluminum market outlook. Morgan Stanley cut its rating to Equal Weight and slashed its price target to $53 from $79, citing a rapid shift toward aluminum surplus driven by Middle East conflict resolution and new greenfield supply from Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and India. JPMorgan lowered its target to $55, Bank of America cut to $51 with an Underperform, and Zacks added a Strong Sell designation — though Wells Fargo bucked the trend with a raised target of $72. The bearish pivot follows Alcoa's $4.1B South32 acquisition announced July 1, which sent shares tumbling ~9%, compounding a ~34% decline over the past month.

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July 10, 2026Alcoa edged modestly higher despite continued analyst pressure, as JPMorgan lowered its price target to $55 from $70 (maintaining Neutral) and HSBC disclosed a 59.5% reduction in its stake. The moves follow Morgan Stanley's Wednesday downgrade to Equal Weight with a $53 target, citing aluminum market dynamics shifting into surplus as Middle East conflict resolution unlocks new regional smelter output and greenfield supply from Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Angola accelerates. Investors are also digesting Alcoa's pending $5.45B acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets, which drew mixed reactions when announced; with Q2 earnings approaching, the consensus rating stands at Hold with a $64 average price target.

0.4329

July 9, 2026Alcoa closed modestly lower as a pair of significant analyst downgrades weighed on sentiment. Morgan Stanley cut its rating to Equal Weight from Overweight and slashed its price target to $53 from $79, citing a rapidly deteriorating aluminum supply-demand outlook driven by a resolution to Middle East conflict and faster-than-expected output increases from regional smelters, alongside a wave of new greenfield supply in Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, India, and Angola. BofA Securities separately trimmed its price target to $51 from $57. The backdrop was further pressured by renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, which rattled broader markets, while investors await Alcoa's earnings report due in roughly eight days.

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Barron's · July 17, 2026Alcoa Earnings Are Improving. The Stock Is Down Anyway.Simply Wall Street · July 17, 2026Stronger Q2 Results And Gallium Pivot Could Be A Game Changer For Alcoa (AA)Barchart.com · July 17, 2026AA Stock Dips as Alcoa Cuts Aluminum Production GuidanceNational Association of Manufacturers - NAM · July 17, 2026Alcoa’s Gallium Plant in Australia Gets Green LightWSJ · July 16, 2026Alcoa Cuts Production Guidance, Says Alumina Prices Stable Despite Iran WarReuters · July 14, 2026Alcoa greenlights Australia gallium plant with US, Japan and domestic backingStock Titan · July 14, 2026Alcoa Gallium Plant to Support Semiconductor, Defense Supply
Benzinga · July 17, 2026BMO Capital Maintains Market Perform on Alcoa, Lowers Price Target to $55
Mt Newswire · July 17, 2026Update: Alcoa Shares Fall After Fiscal Q2 Results Miss Analyst Expectations
Benzinga · July 17, 2026JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Alcoa, Lowers Price Target to $52
Benzinga · July 17, 2026Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Alcoa, Lowers Price Target to $71
Benzinga · July 17, 2026Alcoa Cuts Annual Alumina Production Outlook as Pinjarra Issues Weigh
Benzinga · July 16, 2026Alcoa Reports Q2 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript
Benzinga · July 16, 2026Alcoa Stock Sinks On Q2 Earnings Miss: Details
Mt Newswire · July 16, 2026Alcoa Fiscal Q2 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise

Peers

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