Ares Management Corporation

Non-accruals remain in a low range near 2%, and CEO Arougheti has pushed back firmly against private credit deterioration fears. Record Q1 fundraising of ~$30 billion — up 45% year over year — and the wealth channel posting $3.6 billion gross in Q2 suggest the portfolio is performing well despite macro anxieties.

Rising non-accruals, spread compression from intensifying competition, and lower base rates could erode private credit returns. The stock's ~30% year-to-date decline and 42% drop from its 52-week high of $195.26 reflect genuine market concern that credit cracks may be real and not yet fully reflected in marks.

TD Cowen raised its price target to $153, citing strong net new assets, improving deployment, and increased visibility into 2028 KPIs. With 38.5% revenue growth over the last twelve months and a 4.29% dividend yield raised for six consecutive years, the stock appears undervalued relative to its Fair Value assessment.

Ares missed Q2 EPS consensus by $0.08, reporting $1.24 against an expected $1.32, and BMO Capital Markets rates the stock only 'market perform' with a conservative $128 target. The AI analyst flags a stretched high P/E valuation, weak and volatile cash flow, and less predictable leverage as key concerns.

Preliminary Q2 2026 realized net performance income is expected to exceed $50 million — more than triple the $16 million recorded in Q2 2025. AUM has reached $644 billion, and management fees are tracking near 20% growth, suggesting record 2025 fundraising is converting to recurring revenue as planned.

Citizens JMP cut its price target from $190 to $160, and Weiss Ratings maintains a hold, signaling skepticism about sustained momentum. Ares itself cautioned that preliminary Q2 figures should not be used to infer broader earnings trends or full-year 2026 performance, reflecting meaningful uncertainty in forecasting.