Dassault Aviation S.A.

The global fighter jet market is projected to grow from $82.59 billion in 2026 to $126.52 billion by 2034 at a 5.5% CAGR, positioning Dassault Aviation as a key beneficiary. Strong international demand for the Rafale, backed by ongoing geopolitical tensions and defense budget increases, supports a robust multi-year military order backlog.

Despite favorable market conditions, Dassault faces intense competition in export campaigns and relies heavily on lumpy, government-to-government contracts. Geopolitical delays, shifting procurement priorities, and competing platforms such as those under the GCAP program could disrupt the cadence and predictability of future Rafale export revenues.

Dassault Aviation's 2025 Annual Report confirms Falcon deliveries came in at forecast levels, with 40 deliveries versus 31 in 2024, signaling a meaningful ramp-up in execution. This acceleration demonstrates improved production efficiency and healthy demand in the ultra-premium business aviation segment, supporting near-term revenue visibility.

Falcon orders in 2025 stood at only 26, falling well below the 40 deliveries made during the same period, pointing to a concerning gap between intake and output. This order shortfall raises questions about the sustainability of the Falcon delivery ramp and whether Dassault can maintain current production rates without depleting its backlog.

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom on July 23, 2025, with the stock finding accumulated volume support near 262.00€, offering an attractive risk/reward entry point. The proximity to technical support and the potential for an upward reaction suggest the stock may be approaching a reversal zone for near-term gains.

Dassault Aviation's stock holds sell signals from both short- and long-term moving averages, with the long-term average positioned above the short-term average — a classic bearish configuration. The stock has fallen in 7 of the last 10 trading days and is forecast to decline a further 9.80% over the next three months, with the technical MACD also flashing a sell signal.