International Business Machines Corporation

JPMorgan and Barclays point to Red Hat, OpenShift migration tailwinds, and growing AI-driven container adoption as catalysts for software acceleration in the second half of 2026. HashiCorp's C-suite sponsorship and automation reacceleration are seen as further drivers of revenue growth, with multiple expansion still possible.

Jim Cramer and HSBC argue that IBM is on the wrong side of the enterprise tech spending shift, as AI infrastructure budgets are crowding out IBM's higher-margin software and consulting offerings. IBM's Q2 revenue miss across every segment reinforces fears that AI disruption is eroding its core business, not enhancing it.

JPMorgan, while cutting its price target to $250, maintained an Overweight rating and argued that much of the downside from the mainframe-driven preannouncement is already priced in. The firm believes IBM has levers to cushion the impact, including cost-cutting measures and a $2 billion share repurchase authorization.

Citi analyst Fatima Boolani slashed her price target by 32% to $255, warning that IBM will not immediately recapture delayed mainframe deals and that its organic software business will remain largely flat in the near term. HSBC went further, downgrading IBM to Reduce with a $191 target, citing structural weakness in mainframe demand.

Veteran trader Stephen Guilfoyle placed an aggressive $410 price target on IBM, arguing it will be the last company standing in quantum computing. He contends IBM can outgrow smaller competitors through its existing cash flows or acquire needed growth, with Trump's executive orders on quantum computing providing additional policy tailwinds.

JPMorgan's upgrade of IBM was notably not based on quantum computing, and Oppenheimer downgraded IBM to Perform entirely after Q2 results missed estimates across every segment. Analysts at HSBC and Morgan Stanley focus on near-term fundamentals, suggesting quantum upside remains speculative and unpriced amid current operational headwinds.