Moderna, Inc.

Moderna's expanding pipeline — including its individualized cancer therapy Intismeran, RSV vaccine contracts with the European Commission, and advancing mRNA flu vaccine — represents credible long-term growth levers that could meaningfully offset declining COVID-19 revenue and drive the company toward profitability.

Despite pipeline progress, Moderna continues to post deep net losses, with a $2.82B net loss in 2025 and a consensus EPS forecast of -$6.56 for the current fiscal year. The transition from a COVID-dependent revenue model to a diversified, profitable business remains a work in progress with substantial execution risk.

Piper Sandler maintains an 'overweight' rating with a $77 price target, and some analysts have been raising their targets — such as Barclays lifting theirs to $48 and RBC Capital to $45 — reflecting growing confidence that recent gains are justified by improving vaccine revenue prospects and pipeline milestones.

The most followed analyst valuation framework pegs Moderna's fair value at $44.25, implying the stock is roughly 54% overvalued at recent prices near $68. The average 12-month price target across 18 brokerages sits around $38–$48, well below the current share price, with BofA Securities and Weiss Ratings maintaining sell recommendations.

Moderna's mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine is approaching a key regulatory decision, and the company has indicated the product could be commercially available as early as fall 2026. This represents a major market opportunity that could open a new, large recurring revenue stream and validate the company's mRNA platform beyond COVID-19.

The FDA's previous decline to review the flu vaccine candidate and its vow to impose new vaccine rules have introduced significant regulatory uncertainty. Even if approved, distribution and access challenges may limit near-term commercial impact, keeping investor confidence subdued on the vaccine's revenue contribution.