O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY · NASDAQ
Analyst ratings
strong_buy · 13 ratings
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 7, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $114.00 |
| May 8, 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | $110.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $120.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $114.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $115.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $117.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $115.00 |
| April 30, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $110.00 |
| April 7, 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $110.00 |
| February 9, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $110.00 |
| February 6, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $108.00 |
| February 6, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $110.00 |
| February 6, 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $109.00 |
| February 6, 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | $107.00 |
| February 6, 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | $105.00 |
| February 5, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $110.00 |
| February 3, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $110.00 |
| January 30, 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $111.00 |
| January 15, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $110.00 |
| December 16, 2025 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $110.00 |
| October 27, 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $91.00 |
| October 24, 2025 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy | $121.00 |
| October 24, 2025 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $110.00 |
| October 23, 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $115.00 |
| October 15, 2025 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $115.00 |
| October 15, 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $120.00 |
| September 15, 2025 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $125.00 |
Potential NAPA/Genuine Parts acquisition: Value creator or risky overreach?
The prospective NAPA acquisition is valued at just 7 to 13 times EBITDA — a significant discount that analysts see as a long-term value driver. TD Cowen projects 16% earnings accretion in fiscal 2027 and 19% in fiscal 2028 for the combined Global Automotive business, while D.A. Davidson called the deal 'accretive.'
The market reacted with a sharp 7% stock decline on acquisition speculation, reflecting deep investor unease about near-term execution risks and balance sheet impact. The deal would significantly add to debt, and some valuation models already viewed ORLY as overvalued even before factoring in a major acquisition.
Stock valuation: Reasonable entry point or still overpriced?
After a roughly 22% decline from its all-time high, ORLY's forward P/E of ~25x represents a ~27% compression from its September 2025 peak multiple of 34.58x. Analysts have a median 12-month price target of $110, and historical data shows ORLY has risen in 27 of the past 33 years — an 81.82% historical accuracy rate.
Despite the pullback, InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock appears overvalued relative to its Fair Value. Financhill assigns ORLY a Sell rating with a score of 49/100 — below its historic median — and flags higher-than-normal risk, with short-term forecasts projecting further downside over the next 4 to 13 weeks.
Comparable same-store sales momentum: Structural strength or fleeting tailwind?
Baird raised its price target to $110, citing a strong start to 2026 and a significant 8.1% rise in comparable same-store sales. TD Cowen raised its target to $117 after O'Reilly surpassed revenue and earnings expectations in Q1 2026, with improved EBIT margin and upgraded EPS guidance reinforcing operational momentum.
Despite strong Q1 2026 results, ORLY's stock has declined roughly 6.18% over a one-year period, hitting a 52-week low of $85.19. The AI-based fundamental score stands at just 42/100, suggesting underlying business metrics may not fully support the optimistic same-store sales narrative on a sustained basis.