Polaris Inc.

Polaris reaffirmed its FY2026 guidance, stating that tariff changes on materials such as steel and aluminum are not expected to materially impact its full-year outlook. Wells Fargo also cited easing tariff pressure of approximately 170 basis points year-over-year as a tailwind supporting margin recovery and earnings growth.

While Polaris expressed confidence, rival BRP suspended its outlook entirely amid the same tariff environment, highlighting significant sector-wide uncertainty. The broader tariff landscape on raw materials remains a structural risk that could erode margins if conditions shift unfavorably, particularly given Polaris's reliance on steel and aluminum inputs.

Wells Fargo expects continued gross margin expansion in Q2 2026, following more than 400 basis points of expansion in Q1. BofA Securities raised its 2026 EPS estimate to $1.75, above Polaris's own guided range, citing a solid outlook driven by operational efficiency gains, favorable pricing, and easing promotional activity.

As of late 2025, analysts projected a dramatic EPS decline of over 102% for Polaris in the near term, with revenue growth also expected to contract. The average analyst price target of $67.08 implied a slight price decrease from prevailing levels, reflecting skepticism about the durability of any profitability turnaround.

Wells Fargo's proprietary financing data through June pointed to revenue acceleration in Q2 2026, with top-line performance expected to exceed Street estimates. Polaris also reported solid April retail performance and positive utility side-by-side vehicle sales, suggesting the company's 5%–7% growth guidance may prove conservative.

Polaris's own FY2026 guidance projects only 1%–3% sales growth compared to FY2025, a modest recovery following a period of declining revenue. With the stock underperforming the S&P 500 and analyst consensus implying near-flat revenue growth of -0.78%, concerns persist about whether Polaris can meaningfully re-accelerate its top line.