Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.
SQM · NYSE
Analyst ratings
buy · 7 ratings
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 15, 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | $82.00 |
| July 14, 2026 | Deutsche Bank | Maintains | Buy | $98.00 |
| June 2, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $100.00 |
| May 28, 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | $105.00 |
| March 25, 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Underperform | $53.00 |
| March 4, 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | $100.00 |
| January 21, 2026 | Deutsche Bank | Maintains | Buy | $91.00 |
| January 20, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $93.00 |
| January 13, 2026 | Deutsche Bank | Upgrades | Buy | $88.00 |
| January 12, 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | $90.00 |
| December 17, 2025 | JP Morgan | Upgrades | Overweight | $79.00 |
| December 12, 2025 | Citigroup | Downgrades | Neutral | $74.00 |
| December 5, 2025 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | $63.00 |
| October 6, 2025 | Jefferies | Downgrades | Hold | $50.00 |
| August 26, 2025 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Underperform | $43.50 |
Lithium price recovery and revenue outlook
Strong demand growth in electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, particularly in China and Europe, is driving a sustained recovery in lithium prices. SQM's revenues and margins are expected to benefit as sales volumes are guided to increase by at least 10% in 2025, with earnings forecast to grow 20.5% per annum.
Despite Q1 2026 revenue beating estimates, EPS of $1.28 missed forecasts by 6.57%, signaling cost pressures. Q2 2025 results also showed lower average selling prices in lithium and specialty plant nutrition units, raising concerns that lithium price volatility could persistently compress margins and undermine the earnings recovery thesis.
Stock valuation relative to fair value and analyst price targets
The analyst consensus rates SQM as an 'Outperform/Buy', with an average 12-month price target of $85.73, representing roughly 23% upside from current levels. Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating with a $98 target, and Scotiabank holds a sector outperform with a $105 target, reflecting confidence in SQM's long-term growth trajectory.
SQM's most followed narrative places fair value at approximately $75.33, framing the stock as slightly overvalued at current prices. Bank of America maintains an 'underperform' rating with a $53 target, while Berenberg holds at $66, and the average consensus target on MarketBeat stands at just $75.50, well below more optimistic estimates.
Ownership structure and governance risks from Codelco and Tianqi stakes
Codelco's 2024 lithium deal and Tianqi's roughly 22% stake provide SQM with strategic partnerships that could enhance long-term operational scale and market access. These major blockholder relationships may facilitate coordinated investment in Chilean lithium resources, supporting volume growth and competitive positioning in global battery supply chains.
SQM's complex ownership structure — involving Tianqi's ~22% stake, Chilean blockholders, and Codelco's partnership — introduces significant governance and strategic risks. Conflicts of interest between state-aligned shareholders, foreign investors, and minority stakeholders could lead to regulatory friction, strategic misalignment, or constraints on capital allocation decisions.