Telia Company AB (publ)

Telia reiterated its 2026 guidance of approximately 2% like-for-like service revenue growth, supported by strong commercial momentum, rising Net Promoter Scores, and favorable mobile net additions across its three largest markets, suggesting the Nordic recovery is gaining traction.

Low single-digit revenue growth in core Nordic markets reflects cautious consumer spending and intense competitive pressure. With an average analyst price target barely above the current share price and five analysts recommending a sell, the growth outlook is seen as insufficient to drive meaningful re-rating.

Improved adjusted free cash flow, driven by tighter capital spending and non-core asset disposals, supports Telia's ability to maintain its dividend within its target leverage range. Cost containment efforts are described as well under control, reinforcing confidence in the current payout framework.

Telia's dividend has already been reset lower from historical peaks, anchored in a cautious capital allocation framework rather than an aggressive income profile. The ongoing tension between deleveraging, 5G and fiber investment needs, and shareholder returns leaves dividend sustainability structurally uncertain.

Analysts have progressively lifted their fair value estimates for Telia, with Barclays upgrading the stock to Hold with a SEK 51 target in June 2026 and the consensus average target rising to SEK 46.75, reflecting a broad recognition of improving operational fundamentals.

Despite recent upgrades, Berenberg downgraded Telia to Sell with a SEK 40 target in June 2026, and the wide dispersion between the high estimate of SEK 60 and the low of SEK 30.70 signals deep disagreement about intrinsic value and the pace of the company's structural turnaround.