Trump Signals Progress in Qatar
Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha on Tuesday for indirect talks with Iranian officials. Trump told reporters Wednesday that “the denuclearization of Iran is moving along well” and that negotiators “had very good meetings”. cnbc.com
The talks built on the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed June 17 that paused fighting and set out terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, a Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a post on X that the discussions produced “positive progress” on matters related to the June memorandum. globalbankingandfinance.com aljazeera.com cnbc.com wtvbam.com
Analysts Cut Forecasts as Supply Recovers
The diplomatic progress has prompted Wall Street banks to slash their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the war began. Goldman Sachs cut its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 per barrel from $90, while Morgan Stanley lowered its Q4 Brent estimate to $80. Citi issued the most bearish call, projecting Brent at $70 for the fourth quarter.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that “recovering oil flows through the Strait continue to weigh on prices, driven by previously stranded tankers exiting the Gulf”. ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said there had been “a slight pickup in inbound tanker traffic, suggesting that shipowners are becoming increasingly confident about moving vessels into the Persian Gulf”. globalbankingandfinance.com cnbc.com
OPEC+ Output Hike Adds Pressure
Adding to the bearish outlook, OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to agree to a further hike in their output targets from August when they meet on Sunday, sources told Reuters on Wednesday. The group has already approved roughly 600,000 barrels per day in cumulative quota increases since April. reuters.com globalbankingandfinance.com
Brent dropped roughly 21% in June, its largest monthly decline since March 2020, while WTI fell more than 20%, its worst monthly performance since late 2021. cnbc.com cnbc.com
