Bitcoin USD

Standard Chartered and other institutional desks argue that Bitcoin may have already reached its cycle bottom, supported by structural demand from ETFs and treasury companies. Improving long-term capital flows are seen as reducing the likelihood of a deeper drawdown, with Bitwise's André Dragosch noting that multiple indicators already suggest downside exhaustion.

Hilbert Capital's Russell Thomson believes Bitcoin remains in a downcycle and is likely to break below recent lows before forming a durable base. He expects a revisit of the $52,000–$56,000 range, with potential losses extending to $40,000–$45,000, and sees a probable cycle low forming around October 2026.

Bernstein analysts have maintained a bold $150,000 year-end Bitcoin target, characterizing the current drawdown of over 50% as shallower than the 75%–90% drops of previous cycles. This suggests the broader macro and adoption backdrop remains constructive enough to support a significant recovery into year-end.

Citibank cut its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000 from $112,000, citing Bitcoin's growing correlation with traditional risk assets and macro liquidity conditions. Elliott Wave analysis further projects a decline toward the $41,411–$52,204 extreme area, signaling that the current bounce may be a countertrend move set to fail.

Several analysts point to Bitcoin's post-ETF approval capital base as a structural support mechanism, with Chen noting that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have created a stable valuation floor. Bitwise's Dragosch adds that Bitcoin could begin outperforming AI equities over coming months if macro conditions stabilize.

Bitcoin's deepening integration with traditional financial markets has strengthened its correlation with risk assets, making it more vulnerable to macro shocks. Mitrade's technical analysis highlights that BTC trades below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs with downside risks remaining open, while Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and persistent inflation continue to suppress risk appetite.