Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
GO · NASDAQ
Analyst ratings
hold · 9 ratings
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $9.00 |
| May 14, 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold | $8.00 |
| May 14, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $9.00 |
| March 5, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $7.00 |
| March 5, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $7.00 |
| March 5, 2026 | Telsey Advisory Group | Downgrades | Market Perform | $9.00 |
| March 5, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $7.00 |
| March 5, 2026 | Jefferies | Downgrades | Hold | $7.00 |
| February 25, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Downgrades | Equal-Weight | $10.50 |
| February 19, 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Sell | $9.00 |
| February 17, 2026 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | $15.00 |
| January 15, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $11.00 |
| December 19, 2025 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $16.00 |
| December 4, 2025 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $15.00 |
| December 4, 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $14.00 |
| December 4, 2025 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | $17.00 |
| December 3, 2025 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | $17.00 |
| November 5, 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $16.00 |
| November 5, 2025 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $15.00 |
| November 5, 2025 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold | $16.00 |
| November 5, 2025 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | $17.00 |
| November 5, 2025 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | $16.00 |
| October 1, 2025 | Telsey Advisory Group | Upgrades | Outperform | $20.00 |
Same-store sales (SSS) recovery trajectory and execution credibility
Comparable store sales grew 1.0% in Q1 2026, signaling early stabilization. Jefferies raised its price target to $9.00, highlighting improved traffic and signs of stabilization, while DA Davidson also upgraded its target citing progress from the company's improvement plan.
Multiple Seeking Alpha analyses flag no signs of SSS and gross margin improvement in the near term. FY2026 guidance projects flat to slightly negative comparable sales, and the most pessimistic analysts model only ~1.9% annual sales growth with no profitability through 2029.
Path to sustained profitability amid persistent net losses and weak interest coverage
Q1 2026 EPS of $0.05 beat consensus estimates of $0.03, and net income is expected to grow this year. The company reaffirmed FY2026 net sales guidance of $4.60B–$4.72B, and insider buying by EVP Paul Miller signals internal confidence in the recovery plan.
Recurring net losses, goodwill impairments, and weak interest coverage continue to constrain financial flexibility. Analysts reduced the assumed net profit margin to 0.77%, and the consensus price target implies meaningful downside from current levels, reflecting deep skepticism about near-term earnings normalization.
Valuation and long-term fair value of the independent operator business model
Analysts lifted their consensus price target to $8.46 from $7.62, citing improved revenue growth forecasts (4.14%) and a higher future P/E multiple assumption of 27.19x. Jefferies' turnaround thesis and recent stock momentum suggest the value-focused model may be underappreciated at current levels.
The stock's removal from the Russell 2000 Defensive and Value-Defensive indices may reduce systematic fund demand and amplify liquidity risk. One fair value estimate puts the stock at $7.62, implying 27% downside from its then-current price, with the independent operator structure yet to translate into sustainable profits.