ICICI Bank Limited

The report argues that ICICI Bank is positioned to sustain sector leadership with ~16% loan CAGR over FY26–FY28, a best‑in‑class liability franchise, strong digital and branch distribution, and robust asset quality supported by ample contingency provisions. It maintains ICICIBC as the top BUY in the banking sector, targeting INR 1,750 on 2.5x Sep‑27E ABV, while highlighting contained credit costs, improving operating leverage, and key risks around deposit growth, macro headwinds and ECL implementation.

DBS covers ICICI Bank’s NYSE ADR (ticker IBN US), emphasizing a strong deposit franchise, improving asset quality, healthy capital buffers and a 17–20% loan growth outlook driven by unsecured consumer and SME lending, underpinned by ongoing digitisation. It maintains a BUY rating with a 12‑month target price of USD 33.50 (c. 3.0x FY26F P/B), citing sustainable earnings and ROE improvement, while flagging downside risks from asset‑quality deterioration, margin compression and slower loan growth.

This open‑access page provides a detailed investment thesis with separate bull and bear cases, discussing ICICI’s strong capital adequacy, margin profile, segment‑wise loan growth and subsidiary contributions alongside governance, margin and funding risks. It does not assign a formal rating or target price but offers balanced, data‑driven arguments on upside drivers (asset quality, NIMs, loan growth) versus vulnerabilities (NBFC/HFC exposure, deposit growth plateau, leadership uncertainty and NIM pressure).

LKP reiterates a BUY rating with a SOTP‑based target price of INR 1,730, projecting RoA/RoE of about 2.3%/16.1% by FY28 on the back of 16% loan‑book CAGR, strong rural and business banking growth, and healthy capital and liquidity ratios. The note highlights improving asset quality, declining GNPA and credit costs, range‑bound NIMs after deposit repricing, and key risks around global uncertainties, deposit growth lag versus advances, and potential stress in lower‑rated corporate exposures.

This Q4FY26 review reports an 8.5% YoY / 21.1% QoQ PAT beat driven by robust loan and deposit growth, resilient NIMs around 4.3%, negligible provisions and further improvement in GNPA/NNPA ratios, with PCR rising to c. 77–78%. It keeps ICICIBC as a top BUY with an INR 1,750 target, expecting FY27–28 RoA/RoE near 2.25%/16.2%, while noting that cards and payments fees were softer and outlining risks from ECL transition, deposit competition and macro/credit shocks.

HSIE resumes coverage with a BUY rating and a revised SOTP‑based target price of INR 1,700, explicitly naming ICICIBC as its top pick in the banking universe due to a granular, low‑cost deposit franchise, comfortable LDR/LCR and strong tech‑driven efficiency. It forecasts mid‑teens loan and low‑teens deposit CAGR, sustainable RoA/RoE around 2.3%/16%, and benign credit costs despite elevated gross slippages, while warning about higher MSME/unsecured exposure, PSL mis‑tagging provisions and concentrated NPAs.

Way2Wealth assigns a HOLD view, noting moderate but broad‑based loan growth, improving asset‑quality metrics (GNPA/NNPA and PCR), stable NIM around 4.3% and strong capital/liquidity, but near‑term earnings pressure from RBI‑mandated PSL provisions and labour‑code‑related opex. It expects ICICI Bank to sustain RoA above 2% and RoE above 15% over the medium term, yet argues most upside is already reflected in valuation and stresses risks from regulatory provisioning, slippages in KCC/agri, and margin sensitivity to rate moves.

Anand Rathi reports Q3FY26 core PPoP growth of about 6–7% YoY, credit growth accelerating to c. 11–12% YoY with stable NIMs and resilient asset quality despite seasonal slippages, and expects RoE to remain above 15% with system‑level loan growth. It maintains a BUY rating with a SOTP‑based target price of INR 1,713 (core bank at 2.5x FY28e P/ABV plus subsidiary value), flagging risks from lower‑than‑expected NIMs, lumpy corporate slippages and weaker credit growth.