Nel ASA

Despite a weak Q1, analysts project Q2 revenue growth of approximately 10% year-over-year to around 192 million kroner, with a narrowing per-share loss. The commercialisation of a new electrolyser platform is expected to revive the pipeline and support a gradual recovery in order intake over the next year.

Full-year revenue forecasts have been slashed by roughly 100 million kroner, with consensus now split between 805 and 871 million kroner. Q1 revenue slid to 148 million kroner and order intake collapsed to 85 million kroner, raising serious doubts about whether the backlog can recover meaningfully within the year.

Despite CEO Håkon Volldal's sudden departure in June, the company continues to push forward with its new electrolyser platform commercialisation. The transition period may serve as an opportunity to reset strategy and bring in leadership better aligned with current market realities and cost-cutting priorities.

The abrupt exit of the CEO, with no successor named, adds a significant layer of leadership uncertainty during a critical period. This management void, combined with mandatory quiet period restrictions ahead of the July 15 half-year report, leaves investors without guidance exactly when clarity is most needed.

Technical indicators show the stock has been pushed deep into oversold territory, with an RSI of 34.3 and a year-to-date gain still intact at roughly 8–11%. Short and long-term moving averages both carry buy signals, and identified support levels suggest a potential upside rebound of nearly 20% over the next three months.

Nel ASA's market cap has declined by over 36% in one year, and shares have fallen more than 37% in a single month, now trading below their 50-day moving average. With annualised volatility at 85% and the stock testing critical support near its 200-day moving average, a breakdown could accelerate further losses.