Rakuten Group, Inc.

Analysts see a credible path to profitability for Rakuten Mobile, supported by improving margins, AI-driven efficiencies, and tighter capital management. The mobile segment's turnaround is viewed as a key long-term value driver for the broader Rakuten Group.

Rakuten Mobile has been a persistent drag on group financials, and its trajectory remains uncertain. The decision to sell 5.1 million ASTS shares — a strategic telecom partnership stake — signals ongoing capital pressure, raising doubts about the mobile unit's self-sufficiency.

Jefferies highlights potential upside from ¥200 billion in operating profit and a ¥3 trillion market cap at a 15x multiple. If management credibly isolates Rakuten Bank and preserves minority economics, the reorganization could create a cleaner capital allocation vehicle with visible synergy capture.

Jefferies also flags significant FinTech restructuring risk, including a planned reorganization due by October 2026. The collapse of speculation around Mizuho's potential investment resets the bank to a pure restructuring story, which typically warrants a lower valuation until governance and transfer pricing terms are resolved.

Despite downward revisions, the analyst consensus target of ¥922.86 implies a 13–15% upside from current trading levels. With 7 out of 14 analysts rating the stock a Buy and Morgan Stanley initiating coverage with a ¥1,000 price target, institutional confidence in Rakuten's multi-segment model remains constructive.

Analysts have materially reduced Rakuten Group's fair value, cutting the forward P/E from 28.42x to 26.21x, trimming revenue growth assumptions from 7.63% to 7.38%, and nudging the discount rate higher. These adjustments reflect growing skepticism about the group's near-term earnings power and profitability trajectory.