The Toronto-Dominion Bank

TD's stock upgrade to Outperform by RBC Capital and raised price targets by BofA Securities, Jefferies, and UBS suggest analysts believe the regulatory penalties are being priced in and the bank is on a credible path to resolving its AML issues, unlocking meaningful upside recovery.

Barclays maintained a Sell rating with a C$100 price target — the lowest on the street — reflecting deep skepticism that TD's U.S. regulatory constraints will be resolved quickly, with the consent order continuing to cap asset growth and weigh on earnings potential in its American retail banking segment.

Bank of America Securities raised its price target to C$125, the highest among analysts, arguing that TD's discounted valuation relative to Canadian banking peers presents a compelling re-rating opportunity as compliance costs normalize and the bank refocuses on core profitability and capital returns.

Scotiabank maintained a Hold rating and a comparatively cautious price target of C$114, indicating that near-term earnings visibility remains limited and the stock's recovery is contingent on regulatory milestones that are difficult to forecast with confidence, warranting a more reserved stance.

Technical analysis indicates TD shares are positioned in a rising trend channel, with short-term moving averages crossing above long-term averages and volume increasing alongside price — signals traditionally interpreted as a healthy buying setup with meaningful upside projected over the next several months.

Separate technical analysis highlights that TD is trading below both its MA-20 and MA-50, with the RSI and CCI pointing to selling conditions, a 78% probability of downward movement in the near term, and MACD in negative mode — suggesting persistent short-term headwinds despite supportive long-term fundamentals.